GW20 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR
- Rodri emerging as a likely buy from Hall of Fame managers after a strong return last GW
- Gabriel was subbed in by many managers the previous GW and delivered; Foden struggled despite being favored by HoF managers
- Man City midfielders may see reduced minutes now that Rodri is back in the squad
- Haaland Triple Captain remains the optimal play for GW23
- Aston Villa’s fixture difficulty eases for the next 6 GWs; West Ham’s FDR drops but tough games remain; Liverpool faces increasing difficulty after 2 easier fixtures
Elite Players and Performance
The charts below show how elite manager selections correlate with actual points returned. This helps identify whether the “smart money” is making the right calls.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 1-5, with lower being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
The tables below use a weighted z-score model combining expected points delta and fixture difficulty changes. A higher probability indicates stronger statistical pressure to make that transfer.
Pressure to Transfer In
| Player | Crowd Own | Elite Own | xPts Delta (z) | FDR Delta (z) | Weighted Z | Buy Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães | 0.16 | 0.24 | 3.22 | -0.07 | 2.23 | 0.94 |
| Cody Gakpo | 0.06 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 0.94 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.05 | 0.24 | 2.02 | 2.15 | 2.06 | 0.93 |
| Nick Pope | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.16 | -0.60 | 2.03 | 0.93 |
| Matthijs de Ligt | 0.02 | 0.00 | 2.31 | 1.07 | 1.94 | 0.92 |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.28 | 0.49 | 1.74 | 0.90 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 1.37 | 1.71 | 0.89 |
| Lewis Dunk | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.53 | -0.44 | 1.64 | 0.89 |
| Rodrigo Hernandez (Rodri) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.96 | 0.55 | 1.54 | 0.87 |
| Tino Livramento | 0.02 | 0.00 | 2.42 | -0.61 | 1.51 | 0.87 |
Gabriel leads the buy pressure list with a 94% probability, driven by his strong xPts delta following his return from injury. Liverpool midfielders Gakpo and Szoboszlai also score highly, benefiting from both form and favorable upcoming fixtures.
Pressure to Transfer Out
| Player | Crowd Own | Elite Own | xPts Delta (z) | FDR Delta (z) | Weighted Z | Sell Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.10 | 0.00 | -3.89 | 0.01 | -2.72 | 0.97 |
| Phil Foden | 0.42 | 0.92 | -3.75 | 0.55 | -2.46 | 0.96 |
| Morgan Rogers | 0.25 | 0.00 | -2.64 | -1.76 | -2.38 | 0.95 |
| Matheus Nunes | 0.03 | 0.00 | -3.38 | 0.59 | -2.19 | 0.94 |
| Mikel Merino | 0.03 | 0.00 | -3.00 | -0.10 | -2.13 | 0.93 |
| Rayan Cherki | 0.16 | 0.16 | -3.20 | 0.55 | -2.08 | 0.93 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.02 | 0.00 | -3.55 | 1.37 | -2.07 | 0.93 |
| Ruben Dias | 0.08 | 0.00 | -3.17 | 0.59 | -2.04 | 0.93 |
| Harry Wilson | 0.19 | 0.12 | -3.11 | 0.49 | -2.03 | 0.93 |
| Josko Gvardiol | 0.11 | 0.04 | -3.04 | 0.59 | -1.95 | 0.92 |
Foden stands out as the key sell candidate - despite 92% elite ownership, his xPts delta of -3.75 signals significant underperformance. With Rodri’s return potentially limiting minutes for City midfielders, the case to move him on strengthens further.