GW22 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR
- Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo top the “transfer in” pressure list with 97% buy probability based on xPts and fixture swings
- Brentford assets (Mbeumo, Ouattara) benefit from a significant fixture difficulty improvement
- Ki-Jana Hoever shows 100% sell probability after a massive xPts drop
- Cherki and Kelleher flagged as potential sells despite decent ownership among elite managers
Elite Players and Performance
The charts below show how elite manager selections have correlated with actual points returns—both across the full season and in the most recent gameweek. Use these to identify whether the crowd is chasing points or finding value.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 1-5, with lower being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
The tables below use a weighted z-score model combining expected points delta and fixture difficulty changes. A higher probability indicates stronger statistical pressure to make that transfer.
Pressure to Transfer In
Bruno Fernandes leads the buy list with a 97% probability score, driven by a strong xPts uplift (+3.37 z-score) and improving fixtures (+1.43). Brentford’s Mbeumo and Ouattara both benefit from the same fixture swing, making them attractive differentials with 0% elite ownership.
| Player | Crowd Own | Elite Own | xPts Δ (z) | FDR Δ (z) | Weighted z | Buy Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Borges Fernandes | 12% | 0% | 3.37 | 1.43 | 2.79 | 97% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 10% | 0% | 3.30 | 1.43 | 2.74 | 97% |
| Dango Ouattara | 0% | 0% | 2.60 | 1.77 | 2.35 | 95% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 4% | 0% | 2.59 | 0.93 | 2.09 | 93% |
| Nick Pope | 6% | 0% | 2.11 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 92% |
| Amad Diallo | 1% | 0% | 2.14 | 1.43 | 1.93 | 92% |
| Matthijs de Ligt | 2% | 0% | 1.90 | 1.44 | 1.76 | 90% |
| Zak Johnson | 0% | 0% | 2.49 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 90% |
| Timothée Pembélé | 0% | 0% | 2.49 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 90% |
| Jay Matete | 0% | 0% | 2.49 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 90% |
Pressure to Transfer Out
Ki-Jana Hoever tops the sell list with a 100% probability—his xPts z-score of -7.52 is by far the worst in the model. More notably, Cherki (16% elite ownership) and Kelleher (8% elite ownership) both appear on this list, suggesting elite managers may be slow to react to declining expected output.
| Player | Crowd Own | Elite Own | xPts Δ (z) | FDR Δ (z) | Weighted z | Sell Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ki-Jana Hoever | 1% | 0% | -7.52 | 0.00 | -5.26 | 100% |
| Romain Esse | 0% | 0% | -4.18 | 0.00 | -2.93 | 97% |
| Rayan Cherki | 18% | 16% | -3.49 | 0.31 | -2.35 | 95% |
| Caoimhín Kelleher | 10% | 8% | -3.90 | 1.67 | -2.23 | 94% |
| Marc Guéhi | 42% | 2% | -2.62 | -1.20 | -2.19 | 94% |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 3% | 0% | -3.76 | 1.77 | -2.10 | 93% |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 13% | 0% | -3.09 | 0.31 | -2.07 | 93% |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo | 0% | 0% | -2.75 | 0.00 | -1.93 | 92% |
| Antonee Robinson | 1% | 0% | -2.56 | -0.42 | -1.92 | 92% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 12% | 2% | -2.66 | 0.03 | -1.86 | 91% |