GW30 -- Chip Strategy
TLDR:
- Both models show complete consensus on chip placement timing: WC in GW30, BB in GW32, and FH in GW33
- Bruno Fernandes emerges as the dominant captaincy choice across both models, selected for all non-FH weeks including chip weeks
- Only captaincy divergence occurs during FH33 where both models pivot to Haaland (13.36 xP)
- v2 consistently outperforms v1 in expected points: +0.1 (GW30), +3.6 (GW32), +7.8 (GW33)
- Triple Captain chip remains unused by both models throughout the analyzed period
Chip Strategy Overview
Both models converge on an identical chip sequence: Wildcard in GW30 for squad restructuring (65.8-65.9 xP), Bench Boost in GW32 to capitalize on favorable fixtures (75.4-79.0 xP), and Free Hit in GW33 for maximum single-week impact (104.5-112.3 xP). The models demonstrate strategic alignment in targeting GW33 as the premium Free Hit opportunity, with both achieving 100+ expected points. Notably, neither model deploys Triple Captain during this period, suggesting the other chips offer superior value propositions. The v2 model’s confidence-gated approach delivers consistently higher returns across all chip weeks, particularly notable in the 7.8-point advantage during FH33.
v1 vs v2 Chip Comparison
| gw | v1_chip | v1_xp | v1_captain | v2_chip | v2_xp | v2_captain | consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | WC | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | WC | 65.90 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
| 31 | 52.50 | B.Fernandes | 55.00 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 32 | BB | 75.40 | B.Fernandes | BB | 79.00 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
| 33 | FH | 104.50 | Haaland | FH | 112.30 | Haaland | AGREE |
| 34 | 55.50 | B.Fernandes | 57.30 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 35 | 61.50 | B.Fernandes | 62.50 | B.Fernandes |
The chip timing reveals a classic late-season acceleration strategy, with all major chips deployed within a four-gameweek window (GW30-33). GW33 stands out as the clear fixture bonanza, with both models projecting 100+ points via Free Hit - significantly higher than any other gameweek in the sequence. The models identify GW32 as an optimal Bench Boost spot, suggesting favorable fixture depth across multiple teams. Interestingly, expected points drop substantially post-chip usage (GW34-35 averaging 55-62 xP), indicating these gameweeks represent the optimal chip deployment window before fixture quality deteriorates.
v1 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | WC | 58.40 | 14.20 | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | 7.42 | Senesi, Hill, J.Timber, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, O.Dango, Kelleher, Bowen, Calvert-Lewin | Darlow, Andersen, O’Reilly, Richards, Ndiaye, Enzo, Rice, Beto, Ekitiké |
| 31 | 45.60 | 3.30 | 52.50 | B.Fernandes | 6.91 | |||
| 32 | BB | 68.00 | 0.00 | 75.40 | B.Fernandes | 7.49 | ||
| 33 | FH | 91.10 | 17.40 | 104.50 | Haaland | 13.36 | ||
| 34 | 48.10 | 3.30 | 55.50 | B.Fernandes | 7.43 | |||
| 35 | 54.80 | 13.80 | 61.50 | B.Fernandes | 6.70 |
v2 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | WC | 58.40 | 12.80 | 65.90 | B.Fernandes | 7.42 | Struijk, Ballard, J.Timber, O.Dango, M.Salah, Bowen, Hermansen, Stach, Taty, Wilson | Darlow, Andersen, O’Reilly, Richards, Ndiaye, Enzo, Anderson, Rice, Beto, Ekitiké |
| 31 | 48.00 | 3.40 | 55.00 | B.Fernandes | 6.91 | |||
| 32 | BB | 71.50 | 0.00 | 79.00 | B.Fernandes | 7.49 | ||
| 33 | FH | 98.90 | 19.10 | 112.30 | Haaland | 13.36 | ||
| 34 | 49.80 | 3.60 | 57.30 | B.Fernandes | 7.43 | |||
| 35 | 55.80 | 13.20 | 62.50 | B.Fernandes | 6.70 |
