GW31 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR:
- Newcastle assets like Bruno Guimarães (98.4% buy probability) and Alexander Isak (95.1%) are prime targets with strong fixture improvement and expected points upside
- West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus (98.2% buy probability) emerges as a standout option with excellent underlying numbers and easier fixtures ahead
- Tottenham defenders Cristian Romero and Radu Drăgușin show stark contrast - Romero’s a strong buy (97.9%) while Drăgușin tops the sell list (96.5%)
- Newcastle’s Nick Pope leads the sell candidates (96.6% probability) despite fixture improvement, suggesting underlying performance concerns
- Everton’s Amadou Onana faces severe transfer pressure (94.7% sell probability) with declining expected points and tougher fixtures
The data reveals significant fixture swings heading into GW31, with several teams entering notably easier periods. Newcastle, West Ham, and Tottenham players dominate the buy list partly due to substantial fixture difficulty improvements, with Youri Tielemans showing the strongest FDR delta at -1.66. Conversely, Everton assets face mounting pressure with Amadou Onana’s -1.66 FDR delta indicating a much tougher schedule ahead. The fixture difficulty component is particularly pronounced for defenders, with Tottenham’s contrasting signals highlighting how individual performance metrics can override fixture improvements.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 0-1, with higher being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
Bruno Guimarães leads all transfer targets with a 4.85 expected points delta z-score, combining Newcastle’s fixture ease with his strong underlying metrics. West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus offers compelling value at just 9.4% ownership despite a 5.05 expected points improvement, making him an excellent differential. The sell signals are dominated by defensive assets, with Nick Pope’s -3.75 expected points delta suggesting his underlying metrics have deteriorated significantly despite Newcastle’s improved fixtures. Everton’s Amadou Onana represents the clearest sell candidate, facing both declining performance (-2.59 xpts delta) and a brutal fixture swing (-1.66 FDR delta).
Pressure to transfer in
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of buying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura | 0.05 | 0.00 | 4.85 | -0.30 | 3.31 | 0.98 |
| Mohammed Kudus | 0.09 | 0.00 | 5.05 | -1.10 | 3.21 | 0.98 |
| Cristian Romero | 0.03 | 0.00 | 4.84 | -1.02 | 3.09 | 0.98 |
| Nordi Mukiele | 0.07 | 0.00 | 4.45 | -0.23 | 3.05 | 0.98 |
| Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4.98 | -1.66 | 2.99 | 0.98 |
| Aaron Ramsdale | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4.32 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 0.98 |
| ID:730 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3.82 | -0.17 | 2.63 | 0.96 |
| Justin Kluivert | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.83 | 2.60 | 0.96 |
| Pedro Lomba Neto | 0.04 | 0.00 | 4.07 | -1.20 | 2.49 | 0.96 |
| Alexander Isak | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2.61 | 1.79 | 2.36 | 0.95 |
Pressure to transfer out
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of selling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pope | 0.05 | 0.00 | -3.75 | -0.22 | -2.69 | 0.97 |
| Radu Drăgușin | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.38 | -1.02 | -2.67 | 0.97 |
| Amadou Onana | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.59 | -1.66 | -2.31 | 0.95 |
| Leny Yoro | 0.01 | 0.00 | -3.05 | 0.16 | -2.08 | 0.93 |
| Emiliano Buendía Stati | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.20 | -1.66 | -2.04 | 0.93 |
| Kevin Danso | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.46 | -1.02 | -2.03 | 0.93 |
| ID:724 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.79 | -0.23 | -2.02 | 0.93 |
| Robert Lynch Sánchez | 0.13 | 0.04 | -2.33 | -1.08 | -1.96 | 0.92 |
| Kieran Trippier | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.47 | -0.23 | -1.80 | 0.90 |
| ID:720 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.99 | -1.32 | -1.79 | 0.90 |