GW30 -- Stats review
TLDR:
- João Pedro leads outperformers with an extraordinary +8.95 average difference vs forecast over 8 GWs, suggesting he’s heavily undervalued by prediction models
- Several premium attackers are underperforming expectations, with Ollie Watkins (-2.40), Trossard (-2.42), and DCL (-2.18) all disappointing
- Defenders dominate the utility rankings, with Joe Rodon (0.96), Alderete (0.93), and Struijk (0.92) offering exceptional value
- Micky van de Ven heads underperformers at -3.93, likely due to injury concerns affecting his consistency
- Budget midfielders like Anton Stach (0.93 utility) and Elliot Anderson (0.82) provide strong alternatives to premium options
Points vs Solio forecast
João Pedro’s massive +8.95 outperformance suggests forecasting models are severely underrating Brighton’s striker, making him a compelling differential pick. The list is dominated by defenders and budget options, with Hermansen (+4.57) and Sarr (+4.54) also significantly exceeding expectations. Notably, several budget defenders like Tarkowski (+3.75) and Senesi (+3.74) are consistently beating forecasts, indicating that defensive assets from mid-table teams may be systematically undervalued. The presence of players like André and Summerville in the top outperformers suggests that newly promoted or rotational players are providing unexpected returns.
Utility analysis
Computed utility for upcoming GWs using Solio expected points divided by cost.
Defenders clearly offer the best value proposition, with four of the top utility players being budget defenders priced under £4.3m. Joe Rodon leads at 0.96 utility, averaging 3.76 points for just £3.9m, making him an exceptional enabler pick. The forward position shows concerning value gaps, with only DCL managing decent utility (0.78) among established options, while premium forwards like those underperforming forecasts appear overpriced. Anton Stach stands out in midfield with 0.93 utility at £4.7m, offering genuine value in a position typically dominated by expensive premiums. The data suggests a clear strategy of stacking budget defenders and midfielders to fund premium attackers elsewhere.
Top 4 utility per position - >3.5pts
| name | Avg points | Cost | Utility | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Rodon | 3.76 | 3.90 | 0.96 | D |
| Omar Alderete | 3.80 | 4.10 | 0.93 | D |
| Pascal Struijk | 3.95 | 4.30 | 0.92 | D |
| James Hill | 3.84 | 4.20 | 0.91 | D |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 4.39 | 5.60 | 0.78 | F |
| Danny Welbeck | 4.20 | 6.10 | 0.69 | F |
| Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez | 3.71 | 6.20 | 0.60 | F |
| Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | 4.26 | 7.30 | 0.58 | F |
| David Raya Martín | 3.59 | 6.00 | 0.60 | G |
| Anton Stach | 4.39 | 4.70 | 0.93 | M |
| Elliot Anderson | 4.53 | 5.50 | 0.82 | M |
| James Garner | 4.21 | 5.20 | 0.81 | M |
| Marcus Tavernier | 4.11 | 5.40 | 0.76 | M |
