GW32 -- Stats review
TLDR:
- Nico O’Reilly leads outperformers with +4.79 points above forecast over 8 GWs, offering exceptional defensive value at 0.948 utility
- Multiple defenders dominate both outperformance and utility metrics, with Mavropanos (+4.54) and budget options like Gudmundsson (0.993 utility) standing out
- Premium assets struggling badly - van de Ven (-3.50), Mbeumo (-2.48), and Porro (-2.38) all significantly underperforming forecasts
- Forward position shows limited value with DCL leading at just 0.753 utility, while midfield offers better options with Anderson (0.816) and Garner (0.805)
- Defensive assets providing best value proposition across the board, with top 4 utility spots all occupied by defenders
Points vs Solio forecast
The outperformance list is heavily skewed toward defensive assets, with Nico O’Reilly (+4.79), Mavropanos (+4.54), and Wieffer (+4.34) leading the charge. This suggests defensive players have been exceeding expectations through clean sheet bonuses and attacking returns that weren’t fully captured in forecasting models. Notably, João Pedro (+4.03) and Mateta (+3.73) represent the only attacking assets in the top 10, indicating most forwards and midfielders have performed closer to expectations. The presence of lesser-known names like O’Reilly and Osula suggests budget rotation players have been delivering when called upon.
Utility analysis
Computed utility for upcoming GWs using Solio expected points divided by cost.
Defensive assets completely dominate the utility rankings, with Gudmundsson (0.993), Struijk (0.979), and Hill (0.965) offering exceptional value at budget price points between £3.8-4.3m. The forward position appears severely lacking in value, with DCL’s 0.753 utility representing the highest mark - a concerning sign for managers seeking attacking returns. Midfield provides the most balanced utility options, with Anderson (0.816), Garner (0.805), and Scott (0.801) all clustered around strong value propositions in the £5.0-5.6m range. The data strongly suggests a defensive-heavy strategy has been optimal, with budget defenders providing both reliability and attacking upside that premium assets have failed to match.
Top 4 utility per position - >3.5pts
| name | Avg points | Cost | Utility | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | 3.77 | 3.80 | 0.99 | D |
| Pascal Struijk | 4.21 | 4.30 | 0.98 | D |
| James Hill | 4.06 | 4.20 | 0.97 | D |
| Nico O’Reilly | 4.84 | 5.10 | 0.95 | D |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 4.22 | 5.60 | 0.75 | F |
| Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz | 3.50 | 5.80 | 0.60 | F |
| Danny Welbeck | 3.73 | 6.30 | 0.59 | F |
| Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | 4.27 | 7.30 | 0.58 | F |
| David Raya Martín | 3.70 | 6.00 | 0.62 | G |
| Elliot Anderson | 4.57 | 5.60 | 0.82 | M |
| James Garner | 4.27 | 5.30 | 0.81 | M |
| Alex Scott | 4.01 | 5.00 | 0.80 | M |
| Marcus Tavernier | 4.20 | 5.40 | 0.78 | M |
