GW33 -- Chip Strategy
TLDR:
- Both models show complete consensus on chip placement, recommending FH33, WC37, and BB38 with identical timing
- GW33 Free Hit delivers massive expected returns with v2 projecting 103.7xP vs v1’s 89.7xP, both captaining Haaland
- v2 model consistently outperforms v1 across all gameweeks, showing 14+ point advantages in GW33 (103.7 vs 89.7) and GW36 (89.2 vs 71.4)
- Both models favor Bruno Fernandes as captain in non-chip weeks, switching to Haaland only during FH33
- Wildcard timing in GW37 appears suboptimal with relatively low xP projections (61.6-65.8) compared to the preceding gameweek
Chip Strategy Overview
Both models demonstrate remarkable alignment on chip strategy, unanimously recommending Free Hit in GW33, Wildcard in GW37, and Bench Boost in GW38. The Free Hit timing appears optimal with both models projecting substantial returns, particularly v2’s 103.7xP expectation. The Wildcard placement in GW37 seems more conservative, with both models showing relatively modest projections (61.6-65.8xP) that don’t significantly exceed regular gameweek expectations. Bench Boost deployment in the final gameweek follows conventional wisdom, with v2 again showing superior projections at 76.8xP versus v1’s 70.5xP.
v1 vs v2 Chip Comparison
| gw | v1_chip | v1_xp | v1_captain | v2_chip | v2_xp | v2_captain | consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 56.30 | B.Fernandes | 57.60 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 33 | FH | 89.70 | Haaland | FH | 103.70 | Haaland | AGREE |
| 34 | 55.60 | B.Fernandes | 57.80 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 35 | 54.30 | B.Fernandes | 57.20 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 36 | 71.40 | Haaland | 89.20 | Haaland | |||
| 37 | WC | 61.60 | B.Fernandes | WC | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
| 38 | BB | 70.50 | B.Fernandes | BB | 76.80 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
The chip timing reveals a clear strategy focusing on GW33’s apparent fixture advantages, where Free Hit usage coincides with peak expected returns and Haaland captaincy across both models. GW36 stands out as a significant missed opportunity, particularly for v2 which projects 89.2xP without any chip usage - higher than the subsequent Wildcard gameweek. The Wildcard timing in GW37 appears defensible but not optimal, with projections barely exceeding standard gameweek expectations despite the squad overhaul. The models effectively avoid Triple Captain entirely, suggesting no gameweek offers sufficient captaincy premium to justify the chip over Free Hit’s broader squad advantages.
v1 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 48.90 | 10.20 | 56.30 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | Gordon | Enzo | |
| 33 | FH | 80.60 | 24.30 | 89.70 | Haaland | 9.13 | ||
| 34 | 48.20 | 5.40 | 55.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | |||
| 35 | 47.60 | 12.00 | 54.30 | B.Fernandes | 6.76 | Haaland | Ekitiké | |
| 36 | 61.40 | 12.20 | 71.40 | Haaland | 10.00 | Guéhi | Thiaw | |
| 37 | WC | 54.20 | 13.00 | 61.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.40 | Thiaw, Tarkowski, Saka, Dúbravka, Calvert-Lewin, Ekitiké | Darlow, O’Reilly, Guéhi, Ndiaye, Beto, Haaland |
| 38 | BB | 63.90 | 0.00 | 70.50 | B.Fernandes | 6.54 |
v2 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 50.20 | 12.10 | 57.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | Sarr | Enzo | |
| 33 | FH | 92.30 | 26.30 | 103.70 | Haaland | 11.41 | ||
| 34 | 50.40 | 5.90 | 57.80 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | |||
| 35 | 50.40 | 13.40 | 57.20 | B.Fernandes | 6.76 | Haaland | Ekitiké | |
| 36 | 76.70 | 13.40 | 89.20 | Haaland | 12.50 | Lacroix, Semenyo | Virgil, Ndiaye | |
| 37 | WC | 58.40 | 12.90 | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | 7.40 | Virgil, J.Timber, Garner, Gordon, Dúbravka, Calvert-Lewin, Krejčí, Anthony | Darlow, O’Reilly, Lacroix, Thiaw, Anderson, Sarr, Semenyo, Beto |
| 38 | BB | 70.30 | 0.00 | 76.80 | B.Fernandes | 6.54 |
