GW34 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR:
- Arsenal’s fixture improvement makes Saka (99% buy probability) and Timber (96% buy probability) top transfer targets with both showing strong expected points gains
- Crystal Palace assets dominate the buy list with Wharton, Henderson, Lacroix, Sarr and Mateta all featuring - their fixture ease improvement is significant
- Cole Palmer faces 95% sell probability despite ownership levels, with his expected points delta of -2.78z indicating serious concern about upcoming fixtures
- Udinese’s Bijol tops the sell list with -3.84z expected points change, while Brighton’s João Pedro also shows major red flags at 50.6% ownership
- The data strongly favors Palace and Arsenal assets while suggesting moves away from Chelsea, Brighton and Udinese players
The fixture difficulty analysis reveals Crystal Palace enjoying the most significant ease in schedule, with multiple players showing FDR delta z-scores above +2.0, indicating a very favorable upcoming run. Arsenal also benefits from improving fixtures, though less dramatically than Palace, with Saka and Timber both showing negative FDR deltas. Conversely, Chelsea faces a notably tougher schedule ahead, with Palmer’s -1.43z FDR delta highlighting the difficulty. Brighton and Udinese also appear to be entering more challenging periods, with their key assets showing negative expected points trends that align with tougher fixture lists.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 0-1, with higher being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
The transfer pressure signals point decisively toward Crystal Palace assets, with five players in the top 10 buy candidates all benefiting from both improved fixtures and strong expected points gains. Saka emerges as the premium target with a 99% buy probability, combining Arsenal’s improving fixtures with his consistent output potential. On the sell side, the model flags several high-ownership players facing significant headwinds - Palmer despite his season-long brilliance shows clear transfer pressure at 95% sell probability, while João Pedro’s 91% sell probability at over 50% ownership represents a major rotation risk. The data suggests this is an ideal window to pivot from Chelsea and Brighton assets toward Palace and Arsenal options.
Pressure to transfer in
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of buying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | 0.00 | 5.94 | -1.50 | 3.71 | 0.99 |
| Jurriën Timber | 0.23 | 0.00 | 4.16 | -1.46 | 2.47 | 0.96 |
| Vitaly Janelt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 0.98 | 2.23 | 0.94 |
| Adam Wharton | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.14 | 2.33 | 2.20 | 0.94 |
| Dean Henderson | 0.08 | 0.00 | 2.11 | 2.27 | 2.16 | 0.94 |
| Maxence Lacroix | 0.05 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 2.27 | 2.09 | 0.93 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.97 | 2.33 | 2.08 | 0.93 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.07 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 2.10 | 2.06 | 0.93 |
| Chris Richards | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 2.27 | 1.98 | 0.92 |
| Evann Guessand | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.81 | 2.33 | 1.97 | 0.92 |
Pressure to transfer out
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of selling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaka Bijol | 0.01 | 0.00 | -3.84 | 0.01 | -2.69 | 0.97 |
| Cole Palmer | 0.19 | 0.00 | -2.78 | -1.43 | -2.38 | 0.95 |
| Ilia Gruev | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.04 | 0.02 | -2.12 | 0.93 |
| Marcus Tavernier | 0.05 | 0.00 | -2.71 | -0.45 | -2.03 | 0.93 |
| ID:783 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -2.68 | -0.44 | -2.01 | 0.92 |
| Andrey Nascimento dos Santos | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.15 | -1.43 | -1.93 | 0.92 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.58 | -0.38 | -1.92 | 0.92 |
| Amine Adli | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.54 | -0.45 | -1.92 | 0.92 |
| Lukas Nmecha | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.68 | -0.07 | -1.89 | 0.91 |
| João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | 0.51 | 0.00 | -2.10 | -1.42 | -1.89 | 0.91 |