GW33 -- Stats review
TLDR:
- João Pedro leads outperformers with +5.97 average vs forecast over 8 GWs, while van de Ven heads underperformers at -3.87
- Defenders dominate utility rankings with Gudmundsson (0.97), Struijk (0.97), and Guéhi (0.97) offering exceptional value
- Forward position shows concerning utility with DCL highest at just 0.75, suggesting premium forwards struggling for value
- Brighton assets João Pedro and Welbeck both feature prominently in their respective utility categories
- Several budget defenders under £5.1m are delivering 4+ points per game with elite utility ratios
Points vs Solio forecast
The outperformance data reveals a clear narrative around mid-tier assets exceeding expectations, with João Pedro’s +5.97 average differential leading a group dominated by defenders and forwards from smaller clubs. Brighton’s João Pedro and André’s impressive returns (+4.55) suggest these players have found form that forecasting models hadn’t fully captured. The underperformance list tells a different story, featuring premium assets like van de Ven (-3.87), Marmoush (-2.61), and Trossard (-2.50) who have failed to justify their higher ownership and price points. This divergence suggests that mid-range assets have been the sweet spot for returns, while both budget picks have overdelivered and premium options have disappointed relative to expectations.
Utility analysis
Computed utility for upcoming GWs using Solio expected points divided by cost.
The utility analysis reveals defenders as the standout position for value, with Gudmundsson (0.97), Struijk (0.97), and Guéhi (0.97) all offering near-perfect point-per-pound ratios while averaging over 4 points per game. The defensive dominance in utility rankings reflects both reasonable pricing and consistent returns, with four of the top five utility players being defenders under £5.1m. Forwards present a concerning picture for value-seekers, with DCL’s 0.75 utility representing the position’s ceiling despite his underperformance versus forecasts. Midfield offers more balanced utility through budget options like Anderson (0.82) and Garner (0.80), while goalkeepers remain limited with only Raya featuring prominently at 0.61 utility.
Top 4 utility per position - >3.5pts
| name | Avg points | Cost | Utility | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | 3.69 | 3.80 | 0.97 | D |
| Pascal Struijk | 4.17 | 4.30 | 0.97 | D |
| Marc Guéhi | 4.94 | 5.10 | 0.97 | D |
| Chris Richards | 4.16 | 4.40 | 0.95 | D |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 4.22 | 5.60 | 0.75 | F |
| Danny Welbeck | 3.80 | 6.30 | 0.60 | F |
| Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | 4.20 | 7.30 | 0.57 | F |
| João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | 4.26 | 7.70 | 0.55 | F |
| David Raya Martín | 3.67 | 6.00 | 0.61 | G |
| Elliot Anderson | 4.58 | 5.60 | 0.82 | M |
| James Garner | 4.26 | 5.30 | 0.80 | M |
| Rayan Cherki | 5.01 | 6.30 | 0.80 | M |
| Alex Scott | 3.97 | 5.00 | 0.80 | M |
