GW35 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR:
- Arsenal assets Saka and Timber emerge as prime targets with strong expected points and decent fixture outlook heading into GW35
- Goalkeepers show mixed signals - Vicario and Alisson attractive for their fixture swings, while Kinský faces the strongest sell pressure
- Haaland remains compelling despite slightly tougher fixtures, with his 4.18 expected points delta offsetting fixture concerns
- Defenders from improving fixture runs like Rodon, Dunk, and Chalobah offer budget-friendly entry points
- Arsenal defenders like White face sell pressure due to fixture difficulty increases despite team’s strong underlying numbers
The fixture difficulty analysis reveals Arsenal entering a favorable period, with both Saka and Timber benefiting from easier upcoming matches that boost their appeal. Goalkeepers are experiencing the most dramatic fixture swings, with Alisson (1.10 FDR delta z) and Vicario (0.76) entering significantly easier runs, while Kinský faces a harsh fixture turn. Budget defenders like Rodon and Dunk are capitalizing on improved fixture difficulty without the premium price tags. Conversely, players like Estêvão and Chalobah are seeing their fixture difficulty worsen substantially, creating clear sell signals for the former despite Chalobah’s strong expected points keeping him in buy territory.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 0-1, with higher being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
Saka emerges as the standout transfer target with a massive 6.41 expected points delta z-score, combining elite underlying performance with improving fixtures for a 99.5% buy probability. The goalkeeper rotation presents clear opportunities, with Vicario and Alisson offering strong alternatives to the struggling Kinský, who posts a -4.61 expected points delta. Haaland’s 2.60 weighted z-score demonstrates that elite expected points (4.18 delta) can overcome fixture concerns, maintaining his appeal despite tougher upcoming matches. The sell list is dominated by players facing both performance and fixture headwinds, with White’s -2.34 weighted score highlighting how even Arsenal defenders aren’t immune when individual metrics decline. Budget defenders like Rodon and Dunk offer compelling value plays with strong probability scores above 95%.
Pressure to transfer in
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of buying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach | 0.02 | 0.00 | 6.66 | 0.04 | 4.67 | 1.00 |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | 0.00 | 6.41 | -0.82 | 4.24 | 1.00 |
| Guglielmo Vicario | 0.05 | 0.00 | 4.25 | 0.76 | 3.21 | 0.98 |
| Alisson Becker | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 1.10 | 3.01 | 0.98 |
| Joe Rodon | 0.03 | 0.00 | 3.79 | -0.02 | 2.65 | 0.96 |
| Erling Haaland | 0.56 | 0.00 | 4.18 | -1.08 | 2.60 | 0.96 |
| Trevoh Chalobah | 0.10 | 0.00 | 4.26 | -1.50 | 2.53 | 0.96 |
| Lewis Dunk | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3.64 | -0.11 | 2.51 | 0.96 |
| Jurriën Timber | 0.21 | 0.00 | 3.94 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 0.96 |
| Vitaly Janelt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 0.62 | 2.23 | 0.94 |
Pressure to transfer out
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of selling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonín Kinský | 0.02 | 0.00 | -4.61 | 0.76 | -3.00 | 0.98 |
| Estêvão Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves | 0.02 | 0.00 | -3.44 | -1.51 | -2.86 | 0.97 |
| Benjamin White | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.99 | -0.83 | -2.34 | 0.95 |
| Lukas Nmecha | 0.01 | 0.00 | -3.20 | -0.07 | -2.26 | 0.94 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.59 | -0.94 | -2.09 | 0.93 |
| Amine Adli | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.58 | -0.63 | -2.00 | 0.92 |
| Timothy Castagne | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.40 | -1.00 | -1.98 | 0.92 |
| Tanaka Ao | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.69 | 0.04 | -1.87 | 0.91 |
| Ilia Gruev | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.65 | 0.04 | -1.84 | 0.91 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | 0.01 | 0.00 | -3.04 | 1.10 | -1.80 | 0.90 |