GW34 -- Preview
TLDR:
- Captain split: v1 backs Bruno Fernandes while v2 opts for Salah, reflecting different risk appetites
- Squad agreement drops to just 2/11 players with v2 XI projecting 8.9 points higher (53.1 vs 44.2)
- Both models roll transfers in GW34 but diverge immediately after - v1 targets Tavernier via Groß, v2 via Enzo
- Liverpool and Spurs players show largest projection gaps, with v1 heavily downgrading their potential
- v2’s confidence-gated approach preserves baseline projections where elite signals lack conviction
Squad Picks (GW34)
The squads show fundamental disagreement on premium assets, with v2 captaining Salah (5.67 xP) while v1 downgrades him to vice-captain (4.54 xP). v2 doubles up on Liverpool defense with Virgil (4.83 xP) over Gabriel, suggesting stronger faith in their clean sheet potential. Both models agree on the Fernandes/Rice/Ndiaye midfield core but v2 projects significantly higher returns across the board. The 8.9-point XI projection gap represents a substantial difference in gameweek expectations, with v2’s approach maintaining bullish stances where v1 applies heavy elite ownership corrections.
| Slot | v1_Player | v1_xP | v2_Player | v2_xP | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XI | Roefs | 2.94 | Roefs | 3.67 | = |
| XI | Gabriel | 3.89 | Virgil | 4.83 | DIFF |
| XI | Virgil | 3.86 | Danso | 4.60 | ~ |
| XI | Danso | 3.68 | Pedro Porro | 4.59 | ~ |
| XI | Pedro Porro | 3.67 | M.Salah (C) | 5.67 | ~ |
| XI | B.Fernandes (C) | 5.81 | B.Fernandes (V) | 5.53 | = |
| XI | M.Salah (V) | 4.54 | Rice | 5.25 | ~ |
| XI | Rice | 4.20 | Wirtz | 4.76 | ~ |
| XI | Wirtz | 3.81 | Ndiaye | 4.53 | ~ |
| XI | Ndiaye | 3.62 | Solanke | 5.19 | ~ |
| XI | Solanke | 4.15 | Bowen | 4.45 | DIFF |
| B0 | Hermansen | 2.70 | Hermansen | 3.37 | = |
| B1 | Mavropanos | 3.47 | Mavropanos | 4.34 | = |
| B2 | Brobbey | 2.90 | Keane | 4.01 | DIFF |
| B3 | Armstrong | 2.78 | Armstrong | 3.48 | = |
Transfer Plan
Both models conserve transfers in GW34 but immediately diverge in their Tavernier acquisition strategy for GW35. v1 targets the cheaper Groß exit route while v2 sacrifices the premium Enzo, suggesting different squad value priorities. The GW36 defensive reshuffles show contrasting approaches - v1 moves Virgil to Van Hecke (likely a Liverpool to Brighton switch) while v2 opts for Bijol to Lacroix. These early divergences indicate the models are building toward different squad structures despite similar short-term objectives.
| GW | v1_Transfers | v1_Chip | v2_Transfers | v2_Chip | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Roll | FH | Roll | FH | = |
| 35 | Groß -> Tavernier | Enzo -> Tavernier | DIFF | ||
| 36 | Virgil -> Van Hecke | Bijol -> Lacroix | DIFF | ||
| 37 | Roll | Roll | = | ||
| 38 | Roll | Roll | = |
Model Divergence
The projection gaps cluster heavily around Liverpool and Spurs assets, with Salah showing the largest 1.13-point delta between models. All top divergences show zero elite effective ownership, indicating v1’s z-score methodology is penalizing these players despite baseline strength. v2’s confidence-gated approach preserves the original projections for these assets, suggesting the elite ownership signals lack sufficient conviction to warrant adjustment. This creates a clear philosophical divide - v1 treats low elite ownership as a negative signal while v2 only acts on high-confidence elite consensus.
| Name | Pos | Team | v1_xP | v2_xP | delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | MID | Liverpool | 4.54 | 5.67 | 1.13 |
| Declan Rice | MID | Arsenal | 4.20 | 5.25 | 1.05 |
| Dominic Solanke-Mitchell | FWD | Spurs | 4.15 | 5.19 | 1.04 |
| Virgil van Dijk | DEF | Liverpool | 3.86 | 4.83 | 0.97 |
| Florian Wirtz | MID | Liverpool | 3.81 | 4.76 | 0.95 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | MID | Liverpool | 3.78 | 4.72 | 0.94 |
| Cody Gakpo | MID | Liverpool | 3.75 | 4.69 | 0.94 |
| Kevin Danso | DEF | Spurs | 3.68 | 4.60 | 0.92 |
| Pedro Porro Sauceda | DEF | Spurs | 3.67 | 4.59 | 0.92 |
| Alexander Isak | FWD | Liverpool | 3.63 | 4.54 | 0.91 |
Charts
