GW36 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR:
- Haaland tops transfer targets with massive expected points boost (5.68 z-score) despite City’s mixed fixtures
- Arsenal assets Timber and Saka show strong buy signals with improving fixtures and form
- Multiple keepers (Alisson, Vicario) flagged as buys, suggesting defensive fixtures turning favorable
- Avoid Bournemouth keeper Kinský and Leicester’s Castagne as fixtures deteriorate significantly
- Manchester United defenders Martínez emerging as differential option with improving schedule
The fixture swing analysis reveals Arsenal benefiting from the most favorable schedule changes, with both Timber (-0.14 FDR delta) and Saka showing green fixtures ahead. Liverpool’s defensive assets like Alisson (-0.54 FDR delta) are entering a promising run, while Tottenham’s Vicario also benefits from easier matchups. Conversely, Bournemouth face a brutal fixture turn with Kinský suffering from significantly harder upcoming games. The data suggests a clear shift toward backing premium defenses from top-six clubs as fixture difficulty eases for the run-in.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 0-1, with higher being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
Haaland’s overwhelming transfer pressure (98.8% buy probability) reflects both his explosive expected points surge and remains the standout captain option despite fixture concerns. The emergence of Arsenal defenders like Timber alongside attacking assets like Saka creates compelling double-up opportunities for their favorable run. Budget options like Stach (2.44 weighted z-score) and Janelt offer differential routes into improving teams, while the goalkeeper rotation toward premium options suggests managers should prioritize defensive stability. The sell signals are equally clear - avoid Bournemouth assets entirely and consider moving Leicester defenders before their schedule deteriorates further.
Pressure to transfer in
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of buying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 0.61 | 0.00 | 5.68 | -1.49 | 3.53 | 0.99 |
| Jurriën Timber | 0.18 | 0.00 | 4.82 | -0.14 | 3.33 | 0.98 |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | 0.00 | 4.60 | -0.08 | 3.20 | 0.98 |
| Lisandro Martínez | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.24 | -0.24 | 2.90 | 0.97 |
| Alisson Becker | 0.05 | 0.00 | 4.03 | -0.54 | 2.66 | 0.97 |
| Anton Stach | 0.02 | 0.00 | 3.47 | 0.04 | 2.44 | 0.95 |
| Vitaly Janelt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.42 | 2.36 | 0.95 |
| Rayan Cherki | 0.14 | 0.00 | 3.68 | -1.27 | 2.19 | 0.94 |
| Guglielmo Vicario | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.33 | -0.50 | 2.18 | 0.94 |
| Rodrigo ‘Rodri’ Hernandez Cascante | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3.64 | -1.27 | 2.17 | 0.94 |
Pressure to transfer out
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of selling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID:717 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -4.17 | -0.38 | -3.03 | 0.98 |
| Antonín Kinský | 0.02 | 0.00 | -3.55 | -0.50 | -2.63 | 0.96 |
| Timothy Castagne | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.60 | -1.88 | -2.38 | 0.95 |
| Ayden Heaven | 0.02 | 0.00 | -2.82 | -0.24 | -2.04 | 0.93 |
| Ilia Gruev | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.90 | 0.04 | -2.01 | 0.93 |
| Aaron Ramsdale | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.34 | -0.85 | -1.89 | 0.91 |
| Freddie Woodman | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.46 | -0.54 | -1.89 | 0.91 |
| Yasin Ayari | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.32 | -0.81 | -1.87 | 0.91 |
| Jaka Bijol | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.64 | -0.02 | -1.85 | 0.91 |
| Lukas Nmecha | 0.01 | 0.00 | -2.60 | -0.01 | -1.82 | 0.91 |