GW35 -- Preview
TLDR:
- Both models captain Bruno Fernandes for GW35, with Haaland as vice-captain for v2
- Identical transfer planned: Dúbravka → Raya for GW35
- Strong squad agreement (9/11 XI players match) but significant xP gap: v1 projects 49.5 vs v2’s 55.4
- Major divergence on Haaland projections: v1 downgrades him to 4.95 xP while v2 keeps baseline 6.19
- v2 shows more confidence in Leeds assets like Struijk, while v1 applies downward adjustments across the board
Squad Picks (GW35)
The models show strong structural agreement with 9 of 11 XI players matching, but differ significantly on player valuations. v2’s 55.4 xP substantially outperforms v1’s 49.5, primarily due to more optimistic projections across multiple players. The key personnel differences involve defensive rotations - v1 starts Virgil while v2 prefers O’Reilly and Bijol, suggesting v2 has higher confidence in these lower-owned options. Both models maintain the same attacking core of Haaland-Thiago up front with Bruno Fernandes captained.
| Slot | v1_Player | v1_xP | v2_Player | v2_xP | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XI | Raya | 4.52 | Raya | 4.52 | = |
| XI | Gabriel (V) | 6.00 | Gabriel | 6.00 | = |
| XI | Struijk | 4.18 | Struijk | 5.23 | = |
| XI | Virgil | 4.06 | O’Reilly | 4.63 | ~ |
| XI | O’Reilly | 3.70 | Bijol | 4.15 | ~ |
| XI | B.Fernandes (C) | 6.89 | B.Fernandes (C) | 6.89 | = |
| XI | Semenyo | 3.74 | Semenyo | 4.63 | = |
| XI | Enzo | 3.73 | Enzo | 4.62 | = |
| XI | Scott | 3.55 | Scott | 4.39 | = |
| XI | Haaland | 4.95 | Haaland (V) | 6.19 | = |
| XI | Thiago | 4.19 | Thiago | 4.13 | = |
| B0 | Darlow | 3.28 | Darlow | 4.10 | = |
| B1 | Bijol | 3.32 | Virgil | 3.97 | ~ |
| B3 | Groß | 3.17 | Groß | 3.92 | = |
| B2 | Welbeck | 3.26 | Welbeck | 4.08 | = |
Transfer Plan
Both models converge on the same GW35 transfer (Dúbravka → Raya), indicating strong consensus on this goalkeeping upgrade. The models diverge significantly for GW36, where v1 plans Enzo → Wilson while v2 opts to roll the transfer. This suggests v1’s z-score adjustments are creating enough projection differences to justify additional moves, while v2’s confidence-gated approach sees less compelling transfer opportunities. The identical GW35 move reinforces that both models view Raya as essential for the upcoming fixtures.
| GW | v1_Transfers | v1_Chip | v2_Transfers | v2_Chip | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Dúbravka -> Raya | Dúbravka -> Raya | = | ||
| 36 | Enzo -> Wilson | Roll | DIFF | ||
| 37 | Roll | Roll | = | ||
| 38 | Roll | Roll | = |
Model Divergence
The projection gaps reveal v1’s systematic downward adjustments when elite ownership is low, most notably Haaland dropping from 6.19 to 4.95 xP despite 0.0% elite effective ownership. This 1.24-point gap represents the largest divergence and explains much of the overall xP difference between squads. Leeds assets like Struijk, Calvert-Lewin, and other defenders show consistent 1.0+ point downgrades in v1, suggesting these players lack elite manager backing. The pattern indicates v1’s z-score heuristic is heavily penalizing players with minimal elite signals, while v2’s confidence-gated approach maintains baseline projections when signals aren’t strong enough.
| Name | Pos | Team | v1_xP | v2_xP | delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | FWD | Man City | 4.95 | 6.19 | 1.24 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | FWD | Leeds United | 4.31 | 5.39 | 1.08 |
| ID:706 | DEF | Leeds United | 4.24 | 5.30 | 1.06 |
| Pascal Struijk | DEF | Leeds United | 4.18 | 5.23 | 1.05 |
| Cole Palmer | MID | Chelsea | 4.23 | 5.24 | 1.01 |
| James Hill | DEF | Bournemouth | 3.99 | 4.99 | 1.00 |
| Marcos Senesi Barón | DEF | Bournemouth | 3.94 | 4.92 | 0.98 |
| Joe Rodon | DEF | Leeds United | 3.86 | 4.82 | 0.96 |
| Jayden Bogle | DEF | Leeds United | 3.82 | 4.77 | 0.95 |
| Rayan Cherki | MID | Man City | 3.97 | 4.91 | 0.94 |
Charts
