GW35 -- Stats review
TLDR:
- Noah Okafor leads outperformers with +4.62 points above forecast over 8 GWs, while Haaland disappoints at -2.70
- Budget defenders dominate utility rankings: Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) tops with 1.10 utility, followed by Keane and Guéhi
- Premium assets underperforming forecasts include Haaland (-2.70), Marmoush (-3.04), and van de Ven (-3.07)
- Midfield offers solid value with Cherki (0.93 utility) and Garner (0.85 utility) leading the way
- Several budget forwards like Betuncal and Flemming provide decent utility around 0.67-0.72
Points vs Solio forecast
The outperformance table reveals an interesting mix of budget options and rotation risks exceeding expectations. Noah Okafor’s +4.62 average differential suggests he’s capitalizing on limited opportunities, while defenders like Mavropanos (+3.92) and Andre (+3.67) have likely benefited from bonus points and attacking returns. Midfielders Gibbs-White (+3.63) and Dewsbury-Hall (+3.03) have clearly adapted well to their roles. The underperformance list is concerning for premium owners, with Haaland’s -2.70 differential particularly alarming given his ownership and price point, while Marmoush (-3.04) and van de Ven (-3.07) have failed to meet elevated expectations.
Utility analysis
Computed utility for upcoming GWs using Solio expected points divided by cost.
The utility analysis shows defenders offering exceptional value, with Nico O’Reilly’s 1.10 utility leading all positions despite limited sample size concerns. The defensive cluster of Keane (1.01) and Guéhi (1.01) represents genuine budget gold at their price points. Midfield shows more modest but consistent utility, with Cherki (0.93) standing out as a premium-ish option delivering solid returns per pound spent. Forward remains the most challenging position for value, with Welbeck (0.75) the clear standout, though even budget options like Betuncal (0.72) and Flemming (0.67) struggle to match the utility offered by defenders and goalkeepers.
Top 4 utility per position - >3.5pts
| name | Avg points | Cost | Utility | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico O’Reilly | 5.74 | 5.20 | 1.10 | D |
| Michael Keane | 4.56 | 4.50 | 1.01 | D |
| Marc Guéhi | 5.13 | 5.10 | 1.01 | D |
| Kevin Danso | 4.05 | 4.20 | 0.97 | D |
| Danny Welbeck | 4.71 | 6.30 | 0.75 | F |
| Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal | 3.59 | 5.00 | 0.72 | F |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 3.92 | 5.80 | 0.68 | F |
| Zian Flemming | 3.54 | 5.30 | 0.67 | F |
| Bart Verbruggen | 3.54 | 4.50 | 0.79 | G |
| David Raya Martín | 3.79 | 6.10 | 0.62 | G |
| Rayan Cherki | 6.12 | 6.60 | 0.93 | M |
| James Garner | 4.40 | 5.20 | 0.85 | M |
| Anton Stach | 3.93 | 4.80 | 0.82 | M |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 4.12 | 5.20 | 0.79 | M |
