GW36 -- Chip Strategy
TLDR:
- Both models show complete consensus on chip placement, agreeing on FH in GW33, WC in GW37, and BB in GW38
- v2 model consistently outperforms v1 across all gameweeks, with particularly notable gains in GW33 (103.7 vs 89.7 xP) and GW36 (89.2 vs 71.4 xP)
- Captain choices align perfectly during chip weeks (Haaland GW33, Bruno Fernandes GW37-38), suggesting strong consensus on premium picks
- v2’s confidence-gated approach delivers superior team construction, especially visible in GW36 with an 18-point xP advantage over v1’s heuristic method
Chip Strategy Overview
Both models demonstrate identical chip sequencing: Free Hit in GW33 to capitalize on favorable fixtures, Wildcard in GW37 for final team restructuring, and Bench Boost in GW38 to maximize the season’s end. The unanimous agreement across all three chips suggests these gameweeks offer compelling strategic opportunities that transcend modeling differences. However, v2’s confidence-gated approach consistently extracts higher expected points from the same chip placements, particularly evident in the 14-point xP gap during the crucial GW33 Free Hit week.
v1 vs v2 Chip Comparison
| gw | v1_chip | v1_xp | v1_captain | v2_chip | v2_xp | v2_captain | consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 56.30 | B.Fernandes | 57.60 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 33 | FH | 89.70 | Haaland | FH | 103.70 | Haaland | AGREE |
| 34 | 55.60 | B.Fernandes | 57.80 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 35 | 54.30 | B.Fernandes | 57.20 | B.Fernandes | |||
| 36 | 71.40 | Haaland | 89.20 | Haaland | |||
| 37 | WC | 61.60 | B.Fernandes | WC | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
| 38 | BB | 70.50 | B.Fernandes | BB | 76.80 | B.Fernandes | AGREE |
The chip timing reveals a clear late-season focus, with all three remaining chips deployed across GW33-38. GW33 emerges as the standout Free Hit target, likely driven by fixture concentration that both models identify as premium. The 18-point xP differential in GW36 between models (89.2 vs 71.4) represents the largest gap in the sequence, suggesting v2’s confidence-based adjustments are particularly effective during high-variance gameweeks. The WC-BB combination in GW37-38 follows conventional end-season strategy, though v2’s superior bench construction (13.4 vs 12.2 bench xP in GW36) hints at better player selection throughout.
v1 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 48.90 | 10.20 | 56.30 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | Gordon | Enzo | |
| 33 | FH | 80.60 | 24.30 | 89.70 | Haaland | 9.13 | ||
| 34 | 48.20 | 5.40 | 55.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | |||
| 35 | 47.60 | 12.00 | 54.30 | B.Fernandes | 6.76 | Haaland | Ekitiké | |
| 36 | 61.40 | 12.20 | 71.40 | Haaland | 10.00 | Guéhi | Thiaw | |
| 37 | WC | 54.20 | 13.00 | 61.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.40 | Thiaw, Tarkowski, Saka, Dúbravka, Calvert-Lewin, Ekitiké | Darlow, O’Reilly, Guéhi, Ndiaye, Beto, Haaland |
| 38 | BB | 63.90 | 0.00 | 70.50 | B.Fernandes | 6.54 |
v2 Schedule
| gw | chip | lineup_xp | bench_xp | total_xp | captain | captain_xp | transfers_in | transfers_out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 50.20 | 12.10 | 57.60 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | Sarr | Enzo | |
| 33 | FH | 92.30 | 26.30 | 103.70 | Haaland | 11.41 | ||
| 34 | 50.40 | 5.90 | 57.80 | B.Fernandes | 7.37 | |||
| 35 | 50.40 | 13.40 | 57.20 | B.Fernandes | 6.76 | Haaland | Ekitiké | |
| 36 | 76.70 | 13.40 | 89.20 | Haaland | 12.50 | Lacroix, Semenyo | Virgil, Ndiaye | |
| 37 | WC | 58.40 | 12.90 | 65.80 | B.Fernandes | 7.40 | Virgil, J.Timber, Garner, Gordon, Dúbravka, Calvert-Lewin, Krejčí, Anthony | Darlow, O’Reilly, Lacroix, Thiaw, Anderson, Sarr, Semenyo, Beto |
| 38 | BB | 70.30 | 0.00 | 76.80 | B.Fernandes | 6.54 |
