GW37 -- Early Thoughts
TLDR:
- Brighton players like De Cuyper show strong transfer appeal with improving fixtures (FDR delta z: 1.21) and expected points momentum
- Fulham assets face significant sell pressure as Joachim Andersen leads with -4.49 Xpts delta z and worsening fixtures
- Arsenal’s Myles Lewis-Skelly emerges as a differential option with 3.24 Xpts delta z despite minimal ownership (1.8%)
- Brighton’s Mitoma becomes a prime sell candidate with -4.35 Xpts delta z despite reasonable fixtures ahead
- Manchester City’s Rodri offers upside with improving schedule (0.95 FDR delta z) and solid expected points growth
The fixture difficulty analysis reveals Brighton entering their most favorable period with players like De Cuyper (1.21 FDR delta z) benefiting from significantly easier matchups ahead. Manchester City also sees schedule improvement with Rodri’s 0.95 FDR delta z indicating more manageable fixtures. Conversely, Fulham faces a brutal run with Joachim Andersen’s -1.56 FDR delta z highlighting increasingly difficult opponents. Newcastle’s challenging schedule is reflected in Anthony Gordon’s -1.69 FDR delta z, making their assets less attractive despite reasonable underlying numbers.
Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
FDR measures how tough upcoming fixtures are on a scale of 0-1, with higher being easier. Use this to plan transfers and identify teams entering favorable runs.
Measuring Transfer Pressure
The transfer pressure model identifies clear buying opportunities in underowned differentials like Diego Gómez Amarilla (0.4% ownership, 4.29 Xpts delta z) and Arsenal’s Lewis-Skelly who combines strong expected points momentum with minimal crowd exposure. Fulham’s Joachim Andersen tops the sell list with a devastating -4.49 Xpts delta z, while Brighton’s Mitoma presents the biggest disappointment with -4.35 Xpts delta z despite his 2.1% ownership suggesting continued faith from managers. The model particularly favors defensive assets from improving teams, with multiple center-backs featuring in the buy recommendations as their underlying metrics strengthen heading into the final gameweeks.
Pressure to transfer in
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of buying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Gómez Amarilla | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.29 | 1.20 | 3.36 | 0.99 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | 0.02 | 0.00 | 2.89 | 1.21 | 2.39 | 0.95 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | 0.02 | 0.00 | 3.24 | -0.13 | 2.23 | 0.94 |
| Issa Diop | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.84 | -1.56 | 2.22 | 0.94 |
| João Maria Lobo Alves Palhares Costa Palhinha Gonçalves | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3.03 | 0.21 | 2.19 | 0.94 |
| Rodrigo ‘Rodri’ Hernandez Cascante | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.54 | 0.95 | 2.06 | 0.93 |
| Robert Lynch Sánchez | 0.10 | 0.00 | 3.52 | -1.36 | 2.06 | 0.93 |
| Cristhian Mosquera | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.94 | -0.13 | 2.02 | 0.93 |
| ID:719 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 1.92 | 0.92 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.06 | 0.02 | 2.08 | 1.53 | 1.92 | 0.92 |
Pressure to transfer out
| name | crowd_own | elite_owner_rate | Xpts delta z | FDR delta z | Weighted zscore | Probability of selling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joachim Andersen | 0.03 | 0.03 | -4.49 | -1.56 | -3.61 | 0.99 |
| Freddie Woodman | 0.00 | 0.00 | -4.52 | 0.51 | -3.01 | 0.98 |
| Mitoma Kaoru | 0.02 | 0.05 | -4.35 | 1.20 | -2.69 | 0.97 |
| Benjamin White | 0.01 | 0.00 | -3.76 | -0.13 | -2.67 | 0.97 |
| Dwight McNeil | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.78 | -1.69 | -2.46 | 0.96 |
| Daniel Ballard | 0.03 | 0.00 | -3.37 | 0.40 | -2.24 | 0.94 |
| Lewis Miley | 0.02 | 0.00 | -2.28 | -1.69 | -2.10 | 0.93 |
| Sander Berge | 0.00 | 0.00 | -2.09 | -1.53 | -1.92 | 0.92 |
| Anthony Gordon | 0.03 | 0.00 | -1.79 | -1.69 | -1.76 | 0.90 |
| Benjamin Sesko | 0.05 | 0.00 | -2.61 | 0.40 | -1.70 | 0.89 |