GW36 -- Stats review
TLDR:
- Noah Okafor leads outperformers with +4.24 average vs forecast over 8 GWs, while Erling Haaland disappoints at -4.21
- Defensive options dominate utility rankings with Michael Keane (0.936) and Mavropanos (0.928) offering exceptional value at 4.5m
- Several budget defenders consistently exceed expectations: Tarkowski (+3.68), Mavropanos (+3.43), and Gabriel (+2.77)
- Premium assets underperforming include Haaland (-4.21), Van de Ven (-2.83), and Mbeumo (-2.81)
- Midfield utility led by James Garner (0.845) and Alex Scott (0.825), both priced attractively under 5.3m
Points vs Solio forecast
Defensive assets have been the standout outperformers, with James Tarkowski (+3.68) and Konstantinos Mavropanos (+3.43) consistently exceeding expectations alongside Gabriel (+2.77). The surprise inclusion of forwards Noah Okafor (+4.24) and William Osula (+3.77) suggests budget attacking options have delivered unexpected returns. Most concerning is Erling Haaland’s massive underperformance at -4.21 average difference, indicating even premium captaincy assets aren’t immune to forecast misses. The presence of multiple defenders in the top outperformers list reflects the increased attacking returns from budget defensive options this season.
Utility analysis
Computed utility for upcoming GWs using Solio expected points divided by cost.
Defense offers the strongest utility values with Michael Keane (0.936) and Mavropanos (0.928) leading at just 4.5m each, averaging over 4 points per game. Kevin Danso rounds out exceptional defensive utility at 0.912, suggesting the 4.2-4.5m price bracket is a sweet spot for defensive assets. Midfield utility peaks with James Garner (0.845) at 5.2m and Alex Scott (0.825) at 5.0m, both significantly outperforming higher-priced options. Forward utility appears more challenging with only Betuncal (0.721) and Welbeck (0.695) offering decent value, indicating premium forward investment may be necessary for consistent attacking returns.
Top 4 utility per position - >3.5pts
| name | Avg points | Cost | Utility | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Keane | 4.21 | 4.50 | 0.94 | D |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos | 4.18 | 4.50 | 0.93 | D |
| Kevin Danso | 3.83 | 4.20 | 0.91 | D |
| James Hill | 3.56 | 4.20 | 0.85 | D |
| Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal | 3.60 | 5.00 | 0.72 | F |
| Danny Welbeck | 4.44 | 6.40 | 0.69 | F |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 3.92 | 5.80 | 0.68 | F |
| Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | 4.79 | 7.30 | 0.66 | F |
| David Raya Martín | 4.14 | 6.10 | 0.68 | G |
| James Garner | 4.39 | 5.20 | 0.85 | M |
| Alex Scott | 4.12 | 5.00 | 0.82 | M |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 4.20 | 5.30 | 0.79 | M |
| Anton Stach | 3.77 | 4.80 | 0.79 | M |
