TLDR

• Semenyo and Haaland are the HoF best picks so far
• Liverpool to go on a series of easier games
• Semenyo has been performing very well but tough games ahead in GW8,10 & 11

Elite players and performance

Chasing Arsenal defensive strength with easy fixtures was also a common play that played out well. On the underperforming side, Gyokeres, Senesi, Reijnders & B. Fernandes have disappointed

FDR

Arsenal, Liverpool and City have the easiest calendar for the next 6GWs. Followed by Chelsea, that has an easy GW8 + 11. Watkins, Konsa, Rogers & co. had their shot at something good but time quickly ran out with their next fixtures materially harder than the previous. On the flip side, Liverpool to go on a easier run for next 6 games after a tough run.

Measuring transfer pressure

Using expected points from SolioAnalytics I compare season to date expected points vs expected points for next 6 gameweeks. Players with strong HoF selection rate & an expected big drop in points (or increase in fixture difficulty) are under more pressure to be subbed out while players with a projected increase in points could be subbed in.

Semenyo has been performing very well but tough games ahead in GW8,10 & 11. Saka looks good for next few GWs, with few managers picking him still and favourable fixture run.

Pressure to transfer in

name	crowd_own	elite_owner_rate	Xpts delta vs past - zscore	Delta in FDR vs past - zscore	Weighted zscore	Probability of buying
Bukayo Saka	0.09	0.2	3.38	0.99	2.66	0.97
Lucas Pires Silva	0	0	3.47	0	2.43	0.95
Hannes Delcroix	0	0	3.47	0	2.43	0.95
Youri Tielemans	0.01	0	2.44	2.17	2.36	0.95
Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha	0.04	0.02	2.86	1.08	2.33	0.95
Axel Tuanzebe	0.02	0	3.28	0	2.29	0.95
Anthony Gordon	0.02	0.12	2.14	1.1	1.83	0.91
Lucas Estella Perri	0	0	2.58	0	1.81	0.91
Martin Ødegaard	0.02	0	2.12	0.99	1.78	0.9
Rayan Aït-Nouri	0.06	0	2.56	-0.14	1.75	0.9
Jarrad Branthwaite	0	0	2.35	-0.25	1.57	0.88
William Saliba	0.13	0	1.76	0.99	1.53	0.87
Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.01	0.04	2.21	-0.13	1.51	0.87
Murillo Costa dos Santos	0.03	0	2	0.24	1.47	0.86
Omar Marmoush	0.03	0	2.09	-0.13	1.42	0.86

Pressure to transfer out

name	crowd_own	elite_owner_rate	Xpts delta vs past - zscore	Delta in FDR vs past - zscore	Weighted zscore	Probability of selling
Erling Haaland	0.6	0.96	-4.58	-0.04	-3.22	0.98
Ryan Gravenberch	0.06	0	-3.58	-1.05	-2.82	0.97
Moisés Caicedo Corozo	0.12	0	-3.2	-1.78	-2.77	0.97
Amara Nallo	0	0	-3.9	0	-2.73	0.97
Calvin Ramsay	0	0	-3.9	0	-2.73	0.97
Rhys Williams	0	0	-3.9	0	-2.73	0.97
Ármin Pécsi	0	0	-3.9	0	-2.73	0.97
Freddie Woodman	0	0	-3.9	0	-2.73	0.97
Robin Roefs	0.04	0	-2.94	-0.52	-2.22	0.94
Jérémy Doku	0.08	0.02	-2.97	-0.13	-2.12	0.93
Nico O’Reilly	0.01	0	-2.96	-0.14	-2.12	0.93
Antoine Semenyo	0.57	0.84	-3.3	0.77	-2.08	0.93
Michael Keane	0.01	0	-2.83	-0.25	-2.05	0.93
Alisson Becker	0.09	0	-2.44	-1.07	-2.03	0.93
Marc Guéhi	0.31	0	-2.92	0.2	-1.99	0.92